I had independently thought that this is one of the main parts where I disagree with the post, and wanted to write up a very similar comment to yours.
Highly relevant link: https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Allocating-risk-mitigation.pdf
My best guess would have been maybe 3-5x per decade, but 10x doesn’t seem crazy.
I had independently thought that this is one of the main parts where I disagree with the post, and wanted to write up a very similar comment to yours. Highly relevant link: https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Allocating-risk-mitigation.pdf My best guess would have been maybe 3-5x per decade, but 10x doesn’t seem crazy.