Yes, You can change future μ by being smarter and future σ by being better calibrated, my rule assumes you don’t get smarter and therefore have to adjust only future σ.
If you actually get better at prediction you could argue you would need to update σ less than the RMSE estimate suggests :)
Yes, You can change future μ by being smarter and future σ by being better calibrated, my rule assumes you don’t get smarter and therefore have to adjust only future σ.
If you actually get better at prediction you could argue you would need to update σ less than the RMSE estimate suggests :)