I don’t think that faster alignment researchers get you to victory, but uploading should also allow for upgrading and while that part is not trivial I expect it to work.
I’d be quite interested in elaboration on getting faster alignment researchers not being alignment-hard — it currently seems likely to me that a research community of unupgraded alignment researchers with a hundred years is capable of solving alignment (conditional on alignment being solvable). (And having faster general researchers, a goal that seems roughly equivalent, is surely alignment-hard (again, conditional on alignment being solvable), because we can then get the researchers to quickly do whatever it is that we could do — e.g., upgrading?)
I currently guess that a research community of non-upgraded alignment researchers with a hundred years to work, picks out a plausible-sounding non-solution and kills everyone at the end of the hundred years.
I’m confused by this statement. Are you assuming that AGI will definitely be built after the research time is over, using the most-plausible-sounding solution?
Or do you believe that you understand NOW that a wide variety of approaches to alignment, including most of those that can be thought of by a community of non-upgraded alignment researchers (CNUAR) in a hundred years, will kill everyone and that in a hundred years the CNUAR will not understand this?
If so, is this because you think you personally know better or do you predict the CNUAR will predictably update in the wrong direction? Would it matter if you got to choose the composition of the CNUAR?
I don’t think that faster alignment researchers get you to victory, but uploading should also allow for upgrading and while that part is not trivial I expect it to work.
I’d be quite interested in elaboration on getting faster alignment researchers not being alignment-hard — it currently seems likely to me that a research community of unupgraded alignment researchers with a hundred years is capable of solving alignment (conditional on alignment being solvable). (And having faster general researchers, a goal that seems roughly equivalent, is surely alignment-hard (again, conditional on alignment being solvable), because we can then get the researchers to quickly do whatever it is that we could do — e.g., upgrading?)
I currently guess that a research community of non-upgraded alignment researchers with a hundred years to work, picks out a plausible-sounding non-solution and kills everyone at the end of the hundred years.
I’m confused by this statement. Are you assuming that AGI will definitely be built after the research time is over, using the most-plausible-sounding solution?
Or do you believe that you understand NOW that a wide variety of approaches to alignment, including most of those that can be thought of by a community of non-upgraded alignment researchers (CNUAR) in a hundred years, will kill everyone and that in a hundred years the CNUAR will not understand this?
If so, is this because you think you personally know better or do you predict the CNUAR will predictably update in the wrong direction? Would it matter if you got to choose the composition of the CNUAR?