However, I know the odds of success will be much higher.
Well, how high? Did we get from 0.01% to 0.1%? Or did we get from 5% to 50%?
On the basis of what do you estimate the odds of success?
the discussion is about the existence of alternate scenarios which are higher global utility. An implementable path of execution is not required for their discussion.
Huh? So, um, you’re talking about fantasy worlds, ones which you can’t get to?
My point is that your “alternate future” has serious side-effects which you should not ignore while estimating its global utility. I think that your claim of “higher net utility” is mistaken.
Well, how high? Did we get from 0.01% to 0.1%? Or did we get from 5% to 50%?
On the basis of what do you estimate the odds of success?
Huh? So, um, you’re talking about fantasy worlds, ones which you can’t get to?
My point is that your “alternate future” has serious side-effects which you should not ignore while estimating its global utility. I think that your claim of “higher net utility” is mistaken.