A (highly intelligent) friend of mine posted a link to this on Facebook tagged with “Reason #217 why the singularity isn’t that big of a thing.” I’m wondering if there’s a concise way to correct him without a link to Less Wrong.
Yes, I’ve only seen it after posting this one. It is one of a few resources that recently emerged that satisfy my idea of a concise and easy roundup. So far you had to read many papers or all of the sequences to be able to implicitly conclude that you should support the SIAI. I don’t think that approach works very well. If people are in doubt after reading the following resources, then you can still tell them to read LW:
Someone should put the above content together and maybe add a few more good arguments, like this one:
An AI might go from infrahuman to transhuman in less than a week? But a week is 10^49 Planck intervals—if you just look at the exponential scale that stretches from the Planck time to the age of the universe, there’s nothing special about the timescale that 200Hz humans happen to live on, any more than there’s something special about the numbers on the lottery ticket you bought.
If we’re talking about a starting population of 2GHz processor cores, then any given AI that FOOMs at all, is likely to FOOM in less than 10^15 sequential operations or more than 10^19 sequential operations, because the region between 10^15 and 10^19 isn’t all that wide a target. So less than a week or more than a century, and in the latter case that AI will be trumped by one of a shorter timescale.
Now only very little remains and I got much of what I asked for :-)
A (highly intelligent) friend of mine posted a link to this on Facebook tagged with “Reason #217 why the singularity isn’t that big of a thing.” I’m wondering if there’s a concise way to correct him without a link to Less Wrong.
“Webcomics aren’t real”?
(Normally I’d link to “Generalization From Fictional Evidence”, but that seems to sum up the basic point if you don’t want to link to LW...)
This brand-new post from Michael Anissimov strikes me as just the right thing.
(It’s highly relevant to this thread in general—anyone who doesn’t already read his blog should check it out.)
Yes, I’ve only seen it after posting this one. It is one of a few resources that recently emerged that satisfy my idea of a concise and easy roundup. So far you had to read many papers or all of the sequences to be able to implicitly conclude that you should support the SIAI. I don’t think that approach works very well. If people are in doubt after reading the following resources, then you can still tell them to read LW:
What should a reasonable person believe about the Singularity?
Visualizing “The Future According to You”
Yes, The Singularity is the Biggest Threat to Humanity
The Hard Takeoff Hypothesis (Upcoming)
Someone should put the above content together and maybe add a few more good arguments, like this one:
Now only very little remains and I got much of what I asked for :-)