1. What is your probability that there is a god? A: 7%. It seems very unlikely for a lot of very logical reasons, but I think there’s some chance the infinite recursion argument is true, and I also have to give some chance to any belief that most humans on earth are convinced of. 2. What is your probability that psychic powers exist? A: 15%. I feel like I’m way off the community standard here, but I think if there is a field of “unscientific” research that has promise, it is parapsychology. Frankly, psychology itself seems to border on pseudoscience some of the time, so I’m not remotely confident in making strong statements about complexities of the human brain. Also, as a gut check, some of the weaker claims of ESP are far easier for me to believe in than a God, and there are a lot more ways ESP could be true. 3. What is your probability that anthropogenic global warming will increase temperatures by at least 1C by 2050?A: 70%. The vast majority of that 30% negation space is based on the idea of an unpredictable green tech explosion. 4. What is your probability that a pandemic kills at least one billion people in a 5 year period by 2100? A: 10%. Almost all of that 10% is concentrated in an engineered disease. 1 billion is a hell of a lot of people, I don’t think a naturally occurring illness has the capability to kill so many with modern medicine. 5. What is your probability that humans land on Mars by 2050? 40%. I don’t know very much about space exploration, but I remember NASA making various 10 and 20 year claims over the last ~30 years, and I don’t think a lot of them happened. I’m inclined to think we’re a bit overconfident about Mars. 6. What is your probability that superintelligent AI (=AI better than almost every human at almost every cognitive task) exists by 2115? A: 70%. There’s too much money in the problem for it not to get solved in 100 years, to be frank.
1. What is your probability that there is a god? A: 7%. It seems very unlikely for a lot of very logical reasons, but I think there’s some chance the infinite recursion argument is true, and I also have to give some chance to any belief that most humans on earth are convinced of.
2. What is your probability that psychic powers exist? A: 15%. I feel like I’m way off the community standard here, but I think if there is a field of “unscientific” research that has promise, it is parapsychology. Frankly, psychology itself seems to border on pseudoscience some of the time, so I’m not remotely confident in making strong statements about complexities of the human brain. Also, as a gut check, some of the weaker claims of ESP are far easier for me to believe in than a God, and there are a lot more ways ESP could be true.
3. What is your probability that anthropogenic global warming will increase temperatures by at least 1C by 2050?A: 70%. The vast majority of that 30% negation space is based on the idea of an unpredictable green tech explosion.
4. What is your probability that a pandemic kills at least one billion people in a 5 year period by 2100? A: 10%. Almost all of that 10% is concentrated in an engineered disease. 1 billion is a hell of a lot of people, I don’t think a naturally occurring illness has the capability to kill so many with modern medicine.
5. What is your probability that humans land on Mars by 2050? 40%. I don’t know very much about space exploration, but I remember NASA making various 10 and 20 year claims over the last ~30 years, and I don’t think a lot of them happened. I’m inclined to think we’re a bit overconfident about Mars.
6. What is your probability that superintelligent AI (=AI better than almost every human at almost every cognitive task) exists by 2115? A: 70%. There’s too much money in the problem for it not to get solved in 100 years, to be frank.