I wonder about how the hardware overhangs would look like after the moratorium ends or somebody bypasses it.
On first thought it doesnt look like a robuts solution, I assume a 15-20% improvement on Compute access per year. Would need to plot it against the moratorium treshold and see if over time one gets closer to the Yudkowski Airstrike treshold but I assume no, 20% vs 54%,,
Comparing 0.2 OOMs/year target to hardware growth-rates:
Moore’s Law states that transitiors per integrated circuit doubles roughly every 2 years.
Koomey’s Law states that the FLOPs-per-Joule doubled roughly every 1.57 years until 2000, whereupon it began doubling roughly every 2.6 years.
Huang’s Law states that the growth-rate of GPU performance exceeds that of CPU performance. This is a somewhat dubious claim, but nonetheless I think the doubling time of GPUs is longer than 18 months.
In general, the 0.2 OOMs/year target is faster than the current hardware growth-rate.
I appreciate the concept.
I wonder about how the hardware overhangs would look like after the moratorium ends or somebody bypasses it.
On first thought it doesnt look like a robuts solution, I assume a 15-20% improvement on Compute access per year. Would need to plot it against the moratorium treshold and see if over time one gets closer to the Yudkowski Airstrike treshold but I assume no, 20% vs 54%,,
I dont know! maybe this is a good idea.
I’ve added a section on hardware: