I love how one of the paragraphs in here is essentially:
“Buy bitcoin, not investment advice.”
In all seriousness, though, what makes you believe you have an edge over the market, when it comes to the crypto crash due to Omicron? Everyone in the market is trying to price in the risk of Omicron, why do you think you can do it better?
I certainly believe Omicron poses essentially zero risk to bitcoin, and so if the market is pricing in such a risk, I’d like to buy, but is it actually justified to believe my appropriation of the risk is more accurate than the market’s as a whole?
Would you mind clearly articulating where you think your edge is?
I’m not sure whether this answers your question, but Zvi is an MTG Hall of Famer and knows some stuff about risk. (There’s also some overlap between MTG progamers and Poker players.) And separately, he’s working in the crypto space (on a trading card game called Emergents), so he’s not clueless about the domain.
Apart from that, “efficient markets” is a strong argument, but not a slam-dunk one.
And finally, these are just his initial musings based on very early information, so even if one thought they had an edge here, they’d still have to think hard about whether acting earlier but with less reliable information was better than waiting for better information.
EDIT: To be clear, I have no clue about investing in cryptocurrency.
I love how one of the paragraphs in here is essentially:
“Buy bitcoin, not investment advice.”
In all seriousness, though, what makes you believe you have an edge over the market, when it comes to the crypto crash due to Omicron? Everyone in the market is trying to price in the risk of Omicron, why do you think you can do it better?
I certainly believe Omicron poses essentially zero risk to bitcoin, and so if the market is pricing in such a risk, I’d like to buy, but is it actually justified to believe my appropriation of the risk is more accurate than the market’s as a whole?
Would you mind clearly articulating where you think your edge is?
I’m not sure whether this answers your question, but Zvi is an MTG Hall of Famer and knows some stuff about risk. (There’s also some overlap between MTG progamers and Poker players.) And separately, he’s working in the crypto space (on a trading card game called Emergents), so he’s not clueless about the domain.
Apart from that, “efficient markets” is a strong argument, but not a slam-dunk one.
And finally, these are just his initial musings based on very early information, so even if one thought they had an edge here, they’d still have to think hard about whether acting earlier but with less reliable information was better than waiting for better information.
EDIT: To be clear, I have no clue about investing in cryptocurrency.