I appreciate your series and the first examples in this article.
The “Personal Experience” section doesn’t seem like evidence for “success buys freedom.” Your examples seem like weak evidence in favor of alkjash’s theory.
You say, “If it weren’t for my previous successes,” having discussed failing to get into top universities, failing to be accepted by the Air Force, failing to try to get a date, failing [maybe the wrong verb?] to be able to afford a programming degree, failing to not live surrounded by drug dealers on a plywood slab, and failing several times to get hired at a reasonable rate. (If a nearby you got into the Air Force, it would be very hard for zir to also run a startup from a cupboard in China.) The only thing your description indicates you [conventionally] succeeded at before your startup was teaching yourself to code (which is a success, for sure).
Maybe it’s a matter of framing?
Maybe as another article in the series, write the story of a nearby counterfactual you who went to the Air Force Academy and did five years as a lieutenant, then captain, in IT security (so server programming, similar to the low-paying job you had), then got out. Of the skills and psychological traits that you have needed to be successful in the exact same startup, which ones would have been harmed by the Air Force? Which ones would have been augmented? (My prediction is that lbh jbhyq unir rdhvinyrag be uvture fxvyyf nsgre gur Nve Sbepr ohg gung fbzr bs lbhe “znirevpx” crefbanyvgl genvgf jbhyq unir orra erqhprq, ohg abg rabhtu gb xrrc lbh sebz fhpprrqvat va gur fgneghc svryq.)
It would be trivial to re-write my personal experience into “Success is the Enemy of Freedom”.
The point of my story is that repeated failures restricted my access to resources. (I have succeeded at things I didn’t mention, like teaching myself magic tricks and learning Chinese. These earned me freedom like “being able to live cheaply in China”.) My post would have been clearer if I had gone deeper into my successes. Instead, I focused on how failure restricted my freedom of action.
Of all the skills and psychological traits I need for the same startup, every single one would have been harmed by going into the Air Force compared to the factual. My inability to get an Air Force scholarship was a failure. But it was my lack of confidence and resources (due to other failures) which drove me to such desperation. My lack of resources originated in failure. In this way, one failure helped mitigate (but not entirely cancel) previous failures.
Another counterfactual is the one where I am hired at Amazon instead of my first programming job. I’d probably keep working there for one more year and then quit with years of extra runway for my startup. My ordinary daily living situation would be a lot easier. I wouldn’t have to spend as much effort on survival. I could put more effort into networking which pays dividends. I could afford to take more risks. I could invest a greater fraction of my time into my business. It would be far easier to start a startup but I would be less desperate to do so.
For ordinary people, desperation may be more useful than absolute resources because desperation fuels effort. I am anomalously self-motivated. Effort has never been my limiting factor. Success wins capital and failure loses capital. My historical success is driven by the Kelly criterion.
I wrote the above before reading your ROT13 spoiler.
My maverick personality traits would have been suppressed by going into the Air Force. My technical skills would have been annihilated.
I appreciate your series and the first examples in this article.
The “Personal Experience” section doesn’t seem like evidence for “success buys freedom.” Your examples seem like weak evidence in favor of alkjash’s theory.
You say, “If it weren’t for my previous successes,” having discussed failing to get into top universities, failing to be accepted by the Air Force, failing to try to get a date, failing [maybe the wrong verb?] to be able to afford a programming degree, failing to not live surrounded by drug dealers on a plywood slab, and failing several times to get hired at a reasonable rate. (If a nearby you got into the Air Force, it would be very hard for zir to also run a startup from a cupboard in China.) The only thing your description indicates you [conventionally] succeeded at before your startup was teaching yourself to code (which is a success, for sure).
Maybe it’s a matter of framing?
Maybe as another article in the series, write the story of a nearby counterfactual you who went to the Air Force Academy and did five years as a lieutenant, then captain, in IT security (so server programming, similar to the low-paying job you had), then got out. Of the skills and psychological traits that you have needed to be successful in the exact same startup, which ones would have been harmed by the Air Force? Which ones would have been augmented? (My prediction is that lbh jbhyq unir rdhvinyrag be uvture fxvyyf nsgre gur Nve Sbepr ohg gung fbzr bs lbhe “znirevpx” crefbanyvgl genvgf jbhyq unir orra erqhprq, ohg abg rabhtu gb xrrc lbh sebz fhpprrqvat va gur fgneghc svryq.)
It would be trivial to re-write my personal experience into “Success is the Enemy of Freedom”.
The point of my story is that repeated failures restricted my access to resources. (I have succeeded at things I didn’t mention, like teaching myself magic tricks and learning Chinese. These earned me freedom like “being able to live cheaply in China”.) My post would have been clearer if I had gone deeper into my successes. Instead, I focused on how failure restricted my freedom of action.
Of all the skills and psychological traits I need for the same startup, every single one would have been harmed by going into the Air Force compared to the factual. My inability to get an Air Force scholarship was a failure. But it was my lack of confidence and resources (due to other failures) which drove me to such desperation. My lack of resources originated in failure. In this way, one failure helped mitigate (but not entirely cancel) previous failures.
Another counterfactual is the one where I am hired at Amazon instead of my first programming job. I’d probably keep working there for one more year and then quit with years of extra runway for my startup. My ordinary daily living situation would be a lot easier. I wouldn’t have to spend as much effort on survival. I could put more effort into networking which pays dividends. I could afford to take more risks. I could invest a greater fraction of my time into my business. It would be far easier to start a startup but I would be less desperate to do so.
For ordinary people, desperation may be more useful than absolute resources because desperation fuels effort. I am anomalously self-motivated. Effort has never been my limiting factor. Success wins capital and failure loses capital. My historical success is driven by the Kelly criterion.
I wrote the above before reading your ROT13 spoiler.
My maverick personality traits would have been suppressed by going into the Air Force. My technical skills would have been annihilated.