when the institutions are bad and spread insane views, this outsourced thinking causes the trusting majority to share those insane views
Or alternatively, with the model of institutions as competent but dishonest, the takeaway from an action with an implausible-sounding explanation (pausing vaccination out of “an abundance of caution”) is to make up your own explanation that would make the action seem reasonable (there are issues that are actually serious), and ignore all future claims from the institution on the topic (“we checked and it seems fine”).
Thus conspiracy theories, grounded in faith in the competence of institutions. With how well they manage to keep the evidence behind the real explanations secret, they must be pretty competent!
Or alternatively, with the model of institutions as competent but dishonest, the takeaway from an action with an implausible-sounding explanation (pausing vaccination out of “an abundance of caution”) is to make up your own explanation that would make the action seem reasonable (there are issues that are actually serious), and ignore all future claims from the institution on the topic (“we checked and it seems fine”).
Thus conspiracy theories, grounded in faith in the competence of institutions. With how well they manage to keep the evidence behind the real explanations secret, they must be pretty competent!