we’ve managed to put together a databases listing all AI predictions that we could find...
Have you looked separately at the predictions made about milestones that have now happened (e.g. beat Grand Master/respectable amateur at Jeopardy!/chess/driving/backgammon/checkers/tic-tac-toe/WWII) for comparison with the future/AGI predictions?
I’m especially curious about the data for people who have made both kinds of prediction, what correlations are there, and how the predictions of things-still-to-come look when weighted by accuracy of predictions of things-that-happened-by-now.
Are there any long-term sets of predictions for anything but chess? I don’t recall reading anyone ever speculating about AI and, say, Jeopardy! before info about IBM’s Watson began to leak.
EDIT: XiXiDu points out on Google+ that there have been predictions and bets made on computer Go. That’s true, but I’m not sure how far back they go—with computer chess, the predictions start in the 1940s or 1950s, giving around a ~50 year window. With computer Go, I expect it to be over by 2030 or so, giving a 40 year window if people started seriously prognosticating back in the ’90s, well before Monte-Carlo Trees revolutionized computer Go.
Have you looked separately at the predictions made about milestones that have now happened (e.g. beat Grand Master/respectable amateur at Jeopardy!/chess/driving/backgammon/checkers/tic-tac-toe/WWII) for comparison with the future/AGI predictions?
I’m especially curious about the data for people who have made both kinds of prediction, what correlations are there, and how the predictions of things-still-to-come look when weighted by accuracy of predictions of things-that-happened-by-now.
Are there any long-term sets of predictions for anything but chess? I don’t recall reading anyone ever speculating about AI and, say, Jeopardy! before info about IBM’s Watson began to leak.
EDIT: XiXiDu points out on Google+ that there have been predictions and bets made on computer Go. That’s true, but I’m not sure how far back they go—with computer chess, the predictions start in the 1940s or 1950s, giving around a ~50 year window. With computer Go, I expect it to be over by 2030 or so, giving a 40 year window if people started seriously prognosticating back in the ’90s, well before Monte-Carlo Trees revolutionized computer Go.