I think it’s likely that these markets would quickly converge to better predictions than existing political prediction markets
Why would you expect this to be true? I (and presumably many others) spend a lot of time researching questions on existing political prediction markets because I can win large sums ($1k+ per question) doing so. I don’t see why anyone would have an incentive to put in a similar amount of time to win Internet Points, and as a result I don’t see why these markets would outperform existing political prediction markets. Is the idea that many people contributing a minimally-informed opinion will lead to more efficient results than a few people contributing a well-informed opinion + a bunch of noise traders?
I think realistically, the expected value is much lower than $1k per question (on Predictit, for instance), unless you can beat the market by a very substantial margin.
On average, I’d guess my expected PredictIt profit per question I put a substantial time + money investment into is around $600. Obviously, this is evidence that the market is extremely inefficient; I just don’t see how a market with no incentive to put the time in would be any better.
Why would you expect this to be true? I (and presumably many others) spend a lot of time researching questions on existing political prediction markets because I can win large sums ($1k+ per question) doing so. I don’t see why anyone would have an incentive to put in a similar amount of time to win Internet Points, and as a result I don’t see why these markets would outperform existing political prediction markets. Is the idea that many people contributing a minimally-informed opinion will lead to more efficient results than a few people contributing a well-informed opinion + a bunch of noise traders?
I think realistically, the expected value is much lower than $1k per question (on Predictit, for instance), unless you can beat the market by a very substantial margin.
On average, I’d guess my expected PredictIt profit per question I put a substantial time + money investment into is around $600. Obviously, this is evidence that the market is extremely inefficient; I just don’t see how a market with no incentive to put the time in would be any better.