“In any case, 55% is pretty conservative; it means I consider myself to have almost no information.”
I’m wondering what evidence there is for a probability above 50. That’s what I would consider “conservative”. It’s not literally “no information”, it’s “no more information than the median voter”. That’s what it would mean for your vote to affect the outcome in a positive manner. Conditional on your vote affecting the outcome, there must be as many people (in your area) for one candidate as the other. The more lopsided the outcome, the more plausible it is that a random voter (such as yourself) is making a “correct” decision in light of philosophical majoritarianism. The more divided it is the less it seems likely.
Steve Randy Waldmann has an interesting argument for voting, going from a tribalist to greater-good scenario.
“In any case, 55% is pretty conservative; it means I consider myself to have almost no information.” I’m wondering what evidence there is for a probability above 50. That’s what I would consider “conservative”. It’s not literally “no information”, it’s “no more information than the median voter”. That’s what it would mean for your vote to affect the outcome in a positive manner. Conditional on your vote affecting the outcome, there must be as many people (in your area) for one candidate as the other. The more lopsided the outcome, the more plausible it is that a random voter (such as yourself) is making a “correct” decision in light of philosophical majoritarianism. The more divided it is the less it seems likely.
Steve Randy Waldmann has an interesting argument for voting, going from a tribalist to greater-good scenario.