How Much Ev­i­dence Does It Take?

The Lens That Sees Its Flaws

What is Ev­i­dence?

Bur­den­some Details

Con­junc­tion Con­tro­versy (Or, How They Nail It Down)

Con­junc­tion Fallacy

Kah­ne­man’s Plan­ning Anecdote

Plan­ning Fallacy

Why I’m Blooking

Dou­ble­think (Choos­ing to be Bi­ased)

Hu­man Evil and Mud­dled Thinking

Ra­tion­al­ity and the English Language

Ap­plause Lights

We Don’t Really Want Your Participation

Rad­i­cal Honesty

The Crack­pot Offer

An­chor­ing and Adjustment

Why is the Fu­ture So Ab­surd?

So much for the fac­tual pub­lic de­bate that democ­ra­cies com­pletely fail to be built on

Availability

Ab­sur­dity Heuris­tic, Ab­sur­dity Bias

Mar­kets are a kind of elec­tro­chem­i­cal cell

“Science” as Cu­ri­os­ity-Stopper

Who needs democ­racy, free speech and all that rub­bish when you can pre­scribe the val­ues of your cit­i­zens?

Ex­plain/​Wor­ship/​Ig­nore?

Stranger Than History

Mak­ing His­tory Available

Failing to Learn from History

My Wild and Reck­less Youth

Say Not “Com­plex­ity”

Pos­i­tive Bias: Look Into the Dark

The Fu­til­ity of Emergence

Mys­te­ri­ous An­swers to Mys­te­ri­ous Questions

Se­man­tic Stopsigns

Fake Causality

Science as Attire

Guess­ing the Teacher’s Password

Fake Explanations

Is Molec­u­lar Nan­otech­nol­ogy “Scien­tific”?

Scien­tific Ev­i­dence, Le­gal Ev­i­dence, Ra­tional Evidence

Hind­sight De­val­ues Science

Hind­sight bias

One Ar­gu­ment Against An Army

Up­date Your­self Incrementally

Con­ser­va­tion of Ex­pected Evidence

Ab­sence of Ev­i­dence Is Ev­i­dence of Absence

I Defy the Data!

Your Strength as a Rationalist

The Apoca­lypse Bet

You Can Face Reality