Meta: I’ve spent 30-60 minutes thinking about this, and asking people who I’d expect to know about existing notation. I don’t have scientific training, and I’m not active in the forecasting community.
Problem
I want a clear shorthand notation for communicating credal resilience.
I want to be able to quickly communicate something like:
My 80% confidence interval is 5-20. I think there’s 10% chance I’d change my upper or lower bound by more than 50% of the current value if I spent another ~day investigating this.
I’m using the term “credal resilience”. Some people call this “robustness of belief”.
This seems like the best and probably most popular option, so let’s build on that.
Proposal
For clarity, I’ll repeat the example I gave above:
My 80% confidence interval is 5-20. I think there’s 10% chance I’d change my upper or lower bound by more than 50% of the current value if I spent another ~day investigating this.
To communicate this, I propose:
80% CI [5, 20] CR [0.1, 0.5, 1 day]
Low numbers in the first two parameters indicate high credal resilience. The unit of additional investigation tells you the approximate cost of further investigation to “buy” this extra information.
You can specify hour / day / week / month / year for the unit of additional investigation.
Thoughts?
I’d love to hear people’s thoughts on this. Two questions I’ll highlight in particular:
Do you think it’d be worth developing a good notation for credal resilience, then popularising it?
What do you think of my particular proposal? What might be better?
Wanted: Notation for credal resilience
Meta: I’ve spent 30-60 minutes thinking about this, and asking people who I’d expect to know about existing notation. I don’t have scientific training, and I’m not active in the forecasting community.
Problem
I want a clear shorthand notation for communicating credal resilience.
I want to be able to quickly communicate something like:
I’m using the term “credal resilience”. Some people call this “robustness of belief”.
Existing notation for confidence intervals
APA style guide suggests the following:
This seems like the best and probably most popular option, so let’s build on that.
Proposal
For clarity, I’ll repeat the example I gave above:
To communicate this, I propose:
Low numbers in the first two parameters indicate high credal resilience. The unit of additional investigation tells you the approximate cost of further investigation to “buy” this extra information.
You can specify hour / day / week / month / year for the unit of additional investigation.
Thoughts?
I’d love to hear people’s thoughts on this. Two questions I’ll highlight in particular:
Do you think it’d be worth developing a good notation for credal resilience, then popularising it?
What do you think of my particular proposal? What might be better?