I’ve recently been thinking about how different researchers have wildly different conceptions of what needs to be done in order to solve alignment and what projects are net-positive.
I started making a list of core divisions;
Empiricism vs conceptual research: Which is more valuable or do we need both?
Take-off speeds: How fast will it be?
Ultimate capability level: What level of intelligence will AI’s reach? How much of an advantage does this provide them?
Offense-defense balance: Which has the advantage?
Capabilities externalities: How bad are these?
Are there any obvious ones that I’ve missed?
Is it likely to do more good than harm?