There are two axes along which the anthropic principle can be applied: time and universes.
The first one- time- is simple: let’s suppose, there is 3 epochs: before humanity, before the 22nd century and after the 22nd century. Before 22nd century, 10^11 humans had lived. After we will colonize universe so there will be 10^28 humans (according to my own rough estimate). So what’s the probability of being born in a particular epoch, assuming you are born as a human?
It’s clear out that you could not have been born before epoch of humanity, and the probability that you have been born before 22nd century is extremely low.
Nick Bostrom ends his reflexions here and say: “humanity will extinct in the 21st century, because, otherwise, probability that you and me will born after and the 22nd century ≈1 but we have not”.
But there’s an other axe: universes.
Imagine, that you are trying to determine whether you are in universe A or universe B. At the start, your probabilities are 1 to 1. Than you discover that there’s 100 times more humans in universe A than in B. After doing bayesian update, now your probabilities are 100 to 1.
Let’s suppose there are two possible universes: one in which humanity goes extinct in the 21st century, and one in which humanity colonizes the universe. Considering, that >99.99999% of all peoples life in the universe where humanity won and after 22nd century, the only conclusion can be made: humanity have won and now we are in the simulation of 21st century, because there is much more.
… but if this argument is truth, why not push it to its limits? What if there is a universe where there is no the law of conservation of energy and there is infinity space, so there is an infinite number of intelligent beings (and some of them enjoy simulations)?
Infinity is infinitively greater than 10^28, so the probability that our simulation was launched in the universe with infinite energy is 1-1/∞, so ≈1
At this point, you might think: but what if there is just no universe with infinite energy?
Do you remember example with universes A and B?
The fact that universe A might not exist change nothing- you exist, so, there’s 100 to 1 that universe A exist.
Cogito, ergo we are in a simulation launched in a universe with infinite energy and space- where there are so many intelligent beings that, if you tried to write down their number in decimal system of measurement, the stars would burn out before you finishes writing even 1⁄100 digits of this number.
Reflections on anthropic principle
There are two axes along which the anthropic principle can be applied: time and universes.
The first one- time- is simple: let’s suppose, there is 3 epochs: before humanity, before the 22nd century and after the 22nd century. Before 22nd century, 10^11 humans had lived. After we will colonize universe so there will be 10^28 humans (according to my own rough estimate). So what’s the probability of being born in a particular epoch, assuming you are born as a human?
It’s clear out that you could not have been born before epoch of humanity, and the probability that you have been born before 22nd century is extremely low.
Nick Bostrom ends his reflexions here and say: “humanity will extinct in the 21st century, because, otherwise, probability that you and me will born after and the 22nd century ≈1 but we have not”.
But there’s an other axe: universes.
Imagine, that you are trying to determine whether you are in universe A or universe B. At the start, your probabilities are 1 to 1. Than you discover that there’s 100 times more humans in universe A than in B. After doing bayesian update, now your probabilities are 100 to 1.
Let’s suppose there are two possible universes: one in which humanity goes extinct in the 21st century, and one in which humanity colonizes the universe. Considering, that >99.99999% of all peoples life in the universe where humanity won and after 22nd century, the only conclusion can be made: humanity have won and now we are in the simulation of 21st century, because there is much more.
… but if this argument is truth, why not push it to its limits? What if there is a universe where there is no the law of conservation of energy and there is infinity space, so there is an infinite number of intelligent beings (and some of them enjoy simulations)?
Infinity is infinitively greater than 10^28, so the probability that our simulation was launched in the universe with infinite energy is 1-1/∞, so ≈1
At this point, you might think: but what if there is just no universe with infinite energy?
Do you remember example with universes A and B?
The fact that universe A might not exist change nothing- you exist, so, there’s 100 to 1 that universe A exist.
Cogito, ergo we are in a simulation launched in a universe with infinite energy and space- where there are so many intelligent beings that, if you tried to write down their number in decimal system of measurement, the stars would burn out before you finishes writing even 1⁄100 digits of this number.