Preface: I know this post is pretty wild. Just keep in mind that it’s meant to be lighthearted speculation. I hope that LW will eventually have a subforum for this type of post. Until then, please accept my apologies for putting it here.
Some people (myself included) believe our universe is likely to have digital (“information level”) underpinnings. As Nick Bostrom, David Chalmers, Elon Musk and others have pointed out, either civilizations like ours go extinct before reaching the level of technology necessary to create a simulation (i.e. “programmed universe”), or we are very likely to be in a simulation. (This is because a single organic mind would be able to create billions of digital minds, which would affect the organic to digital mind ratio in any universe.) (Bostrom also explores a third scenario in which posthumans become capable of creating simulations, but none of these posthumans choose to do so—for ethical or other reasons.)
Many people believe AI is very likely to cause “organic species” (such as humans) to become subservient to AI or to go extinct—provided we don’t go extinct from some other non-AI cause first (1). We imagine that the higher the likelihood of this scenario, the lower the likelihood that we would ever create or be in a simulation.
However, it seems there is another scenario in which humans would indeed go extinct, but the remaining AI would eventually choose to create a simulation populated by “digital-minded” humans (and an entire simulated universe with digital underpinnings).
There are many reasons future AI might choose to do this. Just as future posthumans might be interested in their ancestors, future AI might consider humans to be a sort of ancestor. If traits of the human mind are not “magical,” but rather substrate-independent, then curiosity would also be substrate-independent, and could eventually be programmed by AI for AI (long after humans are gone).
Furthermore, since we imagine that the relationship between AI and humans might become like the current relationship between humans and chimpanzees, perhaps we might consider an AI-created digital universe to be like a sort of “digital zoo” or “natural habitat,” the nature of which eludes us.
I realize this general scenario has already been explored, but it seems like maybe we’ve overestimated the extent to which our extinction would negatively affect the likelihood of our existence in a simulation. (If anything, an AI-controlled world might increase the likelihood, since future AI might view ethical questions regarding digital minds in a different light than future humans would. On the other hand, compassion would also be substrate-independent, even if it were to take extensive programming and hardware work to recreate it. And granted, this AI-to-AI programming would most likely develop far too late to help “base reality” humans.)
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1-This doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to prevent our own extinction by using every tool and perspective we have at our disposal.
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[ EDITS 20230422 0914: 1-Added some parenthetical clarifications. 2-Changed from saying the human mind is substrate-independent to saying traits of the human mind are substrate-independent. 3-I also removed a couple words in paragraph 3 so that I’m no longer implying the cause of human extinction will necessarily be from AI, since there are multiple other ways we might go extinct before any AI-created extinction event might occur. 4-Changed “zoo” in paragraph 5 to “digital zoo.” 5-Removed prior edit note regarding alternate titles for this post.
How does AI Risk Affect the Simulation Hypothesis?
Preface: I know this post is pretty wild. Just keep in mind that it’s meant to be lighthearted speculation. I hope that LW will eventually have a subforum for this type of post. Until then, please accept my apologies for putting it here.
Some people (myself included) believe our universe is likely to have digital (“information level”) underpinnings. As Nick Bostrom, David Chalmers, Elon Musk and others have pointed out, either civilizations like ours go extinct before reaching the level of technology necessary to create a simulation (i.e. “programmed universe”), or we are very likely to be in a simulation. (This is because a single organic mind would be able to create billions of digital minds, which would affect the organic to digital mind ratio in any universe.) (Bostrom also explores a third scenario in which posthumans become capable of creating simulations, but none of these posthumans choose to do so—for ethical or other reasons.)
Many people believe AI is very likely to cause “organic species” (such as humans) to become subservient to AI or to go extinct—provided we don’t go extinct from some other non-AI cause first (1). We imagine that the higher the likelihood of this scenario, the lower the likelihood that we would ever create or be in a simulation.
However, it seems there is another scenario in which humans would indeed go extinct, but the remaining AI would eventually choose to create a simulation populated by “digital-minded” humans (and an entire simulated universe with digital underpinnings).
There are many reasons future AI might choose to do this. Just as future posthumans might be interested in their ancestors, future AI might consider humans to be a sort of ancestor. If traits of the human mind are not “magical,” but rather substrate-independent, then curiosity would also be substrate-independent, and could eventually be programmed by AI for AI (long after humans are gone).
Furthermore, since we imagine that the relationship between AI and humans might become like the current relationship between humans and chimpanzees, perhaps we might consider an AI-created digital universe to be like a sort of “digital zoo” or “natural habitat,” the nature of which eludes us.
I realize this general scenario has already been explored, but it seems like maybe we’ve overestimated the extent to which our extinction would negatively affect the likelihood of our existence in a simulation. (If anything, an AI-controlled world might increase the likelihood, since future AI might view ethical questions regarding digital minds in a different light than future humans would. On the other hand, compassion would also be substrate-independent, even if it were to take extensive programming and hardware work to recreate it. And granted, this AI-to-AI programming would most likely develop far too late to help “base reality” humans.)
--
1-This doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to prevent our own extinction by using every tool and perspective we have at our disposal.
--
[
EDITS 20230422 0914:
1-Added some parenthetical clarifications.
2-Changed from saying the human mind is substrate-independent to saying traits of the human mind are substrate-independent.
3-I also removed a couple words in paragraph 3 so that I’m no longer implying the cause of human extinction will necessarily be from AI, since there are multiple other ways we might go extinct before any AI-created extinction event might occur.
4-Changed “zoo” in paragraph 5 to “digital zoo.”
5-Removed prior edit note regarding alternate titles for this post.
EDIT 20230502 0711 CST:
1-Moved parenthetical clarification.
]