Hard to separate government from cultural/behavioral issues—they reinforce each other. But variance in behaviors regionally (differences in how quickly governments signaled action and how well populations complied) seems likely to be a significant driver of variation of outcomes.
Wild guesses: 30% from different patterns of trade and interaction with the broader infected world, 25% from different social structures and living situations (types of corner store and shopping/entertainment mechanisms), 45% from behavioral differences and reaction time. I don’t think I can defend these guesses, and would be interested to hear other perspectives and missing causes of variation.
Note that we don’t actually know yet if NYC is all that much worse off than San Francisco. It looks that way currently, but a lot can change in a few weeks.
Hard to separate government from cultural/behavioral issues—they reinforce each other. But variance in behaviors regionally (differences in how quickly governments signaled action and how well populations complied) seems likely to be a significant driver of variation of outcomes.
Wild guesses: 30% from different patterns of trade and interaction with the broader infected world, 25% from different social structures and living situations (types of corner store and shopping/entertainment mechanisms), 45% from behavioral differences and reaction time. I don’t think I can defend these guesses, and would be interested to hear other perspectives and missing causes of variation.
Note that we don’t actually know yet if NYC is all that much worse off than San Francisco. It looks that way currently, but a lot can change in a few weeks.