I have heard, and give some credit to, the theory that silicon valley tech company culture played a role in the bay area’s response being relatively early. Tech companies were making contingency plans and sending their employees home, well before there was any kind of government action here. I don’t know what fraction of employees / day-to-day interactions that represents. But e.g. all Google employees working from home seems like it could have played a nontrivial role in Mountain View, which was the epicenter of the bay area coronavirus outbreak.
Hard to separate government from cultural/behavioral issues—they reinforce each other. But variance in behaviors regionally (differences in how quickly governments signaled action and how well populations complied) seems likely to be a significant driver of variation of outcomes.
Wild guesses: 30% from different patterns of trade and interaction with the broader infected world, 25% from different social structures and living situations (types of corner store and shopping/entertainment mechanisms), 45% from behavioral differences and reaction time. I don’t think I can defend these guesses, and would be interested to hear other perspectives and missing causes of variation.
Note that we don’t actually know yet if NYC is all that much worse off than San Francisco. It looks that way currently, but a lot can change in a few weeks.
So how much of the differences between the Bay Area and NY do you attribute to a difference in government action?
I have heard, and give some credit to, the theory that silicon valley tech company culture played a role in the bay area’s response being relatively early. Tech companies were making contingency plans and sending their employees home, well before there was any kind of government action here. I don’t know what fraction of employees / day-to-day interactions that represents. But e.g. all Google employees working from home seems like it could have played a nontrivial role in Mountain View, which was the epicenter of the bay area coronavirus outbreak.
Hard to separate government from cultural/behavioral issues—they reinforce each other. But variance in behaviors regionally (differences in how quickly governments signaled action and how well populations complied) seems likely to be a significant driver of variation of outcomes.
Wild guesses: 30% from different patterns of trade and interaction with the broader infected world, 25% from different social structures and living situations (types of corner store and shopping/entertainment mechanisms), 45% from behavioral differences and reaction time. I don’t think I can defend these guesses, and would be interested to hear other perspectives and missing causes of variation.
Note that we don’t actually know yet if NYC is all that much worse off than San Francisco. It looks that way currently, but a lot can change in a few weeks.