I’m still unconvinced that p(doom) numbers aren’t largely pulled out of thin air. It’s at best a fermi estimate so we can safely assume the real p(doom) numbers are within an order of magnitude of the estimate. Doesn’t bode well for most estimates as it means basically any number implies a 0-100% of doom.
Exactly, not very informative. For pretty much any p(doom) the range is anywhere from non-existent to very likely. When someone gives a Fermi estimate of a p(doom) between 0% and 100% they may as well be saying the p(doom) is between ~0% and ~100%. Divide any number by 10 and multiply by 10 to see this.
I’m still unconvinced that p(doom) numbers aren’t largely pulled out of thin air. It’s at best a fermi estimate so we can safely assume the real p(doom) numbers are within an order of magnitude of the estimate. Doesn’t bode well for most estimates as it means basically any number implies a 0-100% of doom.
Probability is a geometric scale, not an additive one. An order of magnitude centered on 10% covers ~1% − 50%.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QGkYCwyC7wTDyt3yT/0-and-1-are-not-probabilities
Exactly, not very informative. For pretty much any p(doom) the range is anywhere from non-existent to very likely. When someone gives a Fermi estimate of a p(doom) between 0% and 100% they may as well be saying the p(doom) is between ~0% and ~100%. Divide any number by 10 and multiply by 10 to see this.