Exactly, not very informative. For pretty much any p(doom) the range is anywhere from non-existent to very likely. When someone gives a Fermi estimate of a p(doom) between 0% and 100% they may as well be saying the p(doom) is between ~0% and ~100%. Divide any number by 10 and multiply by 10 to see this.
Probability is a geometric scale, not an additive one. An order of magnitude centered on 10% covers ~1% − 50%.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QGkYCwyC7wTDyt3yT/0-and-1-are-not-probabilities
Exactly, not very informative. For pretty much any p(doom) the range is anywhere from non-existent to very likely. When someone gives a Fermi estimate of a p(doom) between 0% and 100% they may as well be saying the p(doom) is between ~0% and ~100%. Divide any number by 10 and multiply by 10 to see this.