Grading myself on SSC’s 2020 predictions

Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions

Judging Our April 2020 Covid-19 Predictions

I privately recorded my own predictions on these questions. I felt uncomfortable posting these publicly at the time. I can’t fix that, but I can post my answers now and do better next time.

Score: 3.34


Edit: Per @bucky, I’m pretty sure the scoring rule I used (ln(p) - ln(.5)) is wrong, but I’m not sure what would be the correct rule.