How good of an idea do the people on this website have in regards to predicting an AGI apocalypse?
I get the impression that a lot of people seem to be very certain that it will happen relatively soon and I think I’ve figured out a way to test it. The spreadsheet for the data would look something like this. This questionnaire would be asked each year and the average percentage for each question would be used.
The interesting thing is that I think I know what it will look like over time
The smallest red box would be your prediction for the first year. It would probably be very low. The largest box (in this case) would be the probability that it happens within 25 years. As time passes by and nothing happens the graph would simply shift left.
Are we there yet?
I get the impression that a lot of people seem to be very certain that it will happen relatively soon and I think I’ve figured out a way to test it. The spreadsheet for the data would look something like this. This questionnaire would be asked each year and the average percentage for each question would be used.
The interesting thing is that I think I know what it will look like over time
The smallest red box would be your prediction for the first year. It would probably be very low. The largest box (in this case) would be the probability that it happens within 25 years. As time passes by and nothing happens the graph would simply shift left.
What do you think about this approach?
Regards, theflowerpot