[Question] Have the lockdowns been worth it?

There’s been a lot of dis­cus­sion about whether the pan­demic lock­downs have been worth it. How­ever, much of the rea­son­ing that we’ve seen has been very mo­ti­vated and un-nu­anced in a way that for us has dis­torted a lot of the in­for­ma­tion.

So this is not a thread for tak­ing a po­si­tion on that. This is a thread for rais­ing in­di­vi­d­ual con­sid­er­a­tions that are rele­vant for think­ing about the ques­tion “Have the pan­demic lock­downs, in gen­eral, been worth it?”

Every an­swer to this thread should an­a­lyze a sin­gle be­lief that is rele­vant to whether pan­demic lock­downs have been worth it, such as

  • “No lock­down would have led to 300,000 ad­di­tional loss of QALYs in the UK”

  • “GDP $1b lower than the coun­ter­fac­tual in Ger­many”

  • “The West will de­velop a vac­cine in 6 months”

  • “A year in lock­down is worth 70% of a nor­mal year and 85% of a covid year with­out lock­down”

  • “The im­pe­tus to try re­mote work has led to changes in work­place norms worth $1 trillion over the next decade”

and provide rele­vant facts, data and in­for­ma­tion available about that fac­tor.

An­swers in this thread should not at­tempt to take a po­si­tion on the over­all ques­tion. An­swers that take a po­si­tion on the over­all ques­tion will be deleted. This thread will live up to the virtue of hold­ing off on propos­ing solu­tions.

(By ‘lock­down’ we re­fer to the thing that the US, UK and China have been do­ing, and what Swe­den didn’t. There is nat­u­rally a lot of vari­a­tion be­tween coun­tries, so this can­not have a canon­i­cal an­swer. If your con­sid­er­a­tion only ap­plies to a small num­ber of coun­tries, that is fine.)