You are allowed to write a top-level article once you have at least twenty karma. You should write a top-level article if you have twenty karma, you have an important point to make about rationality, and you’re familiar enough with the sequences that you don’t think you’re making a simple mistake.
Welcome!
Please do this. I’m interested.
From the FAQ:
Thanks for pointing the rule about karma out to me. I’ve got 10 points so far, 10 more to go...