I ask partly because I personally would be more excited of a version of this that wasn’t ignoring AGI timelines, but I think a version of this that’s not ignoring AGI timelines would probably be quite different from the intellectual spirit/tradition of FHI.
This frame feels a bit off to me. Partly because I don’t think FHI was ignoring timelines, and because I think their work has proved quite useful already—mostly by substantially improving our concepts for reasoning about existential risk.
But also, the portfolio of alignment research with maximal expected value need not necessarily perform well in the most likely particular world. One might imagine, for example—and indeed this is my own bet—that the most valuable actions we can take will only actually save us in the subset of worlds in which we have enough time to develop a proper science of alignment.
This frame feels a bit off to me. Partly because I don’t think FHI was ignoring timelines, and because I think their work has proved quite useful already—mostly by substantially improving our concepts for reasoning about existential risk.
But also, the portfolio of alignment research with maximal expected value need not necessarily perform well in the most likely particular world. One might imagine, for example—and indeed this is my own bet—that the most valuable actions we can take will only actually save us in the subset of worlds in which we have enough time to develop a proper science of alignment.