Edited as my maths was wrong and I forgot row zero!
First finding: I should stop using excel for these challenges.
Second finding: cell deadliness defined as (∑jPassedThrough(i,j)×Wrecked(j)Length(j))/(∑jPassedthrough(i,j) where i sums over cells, j sums over journeys, PassedThrough is whether a journey planned to go through a cell, Wrecked is whether a journey resulted in a wreck, and Length is the length of a journey
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
0
1.01%
0.71%
0.40%
3.46%
1.11%
1.52%
4.04%
1
0.00%
0.61%
0.64%
0.90%
1.25%
1.08%
1.02%
0.94%
0.96%
0.84%
0.86%
0.74%
0.73%
0.78%
0.89%
1.02%
1.42%
1.31%
2
0.76%
1.12%
1.31%
1.12%
1.19%
1.40%
0.97%
1.52%
0.45%
0.28%
1.28%
1.49%
0.69%
3
1.35%
1.01%
1.29%
1.06%
1.23%
0.43%
0.39%
0.64%
0.69%
0.91%
0.65%
0.82%
4
0.00%
1.10%
0.99%
1.32%
1.45%
1.31%
0.94%
1.03%
1.13%
0.98%
0.97%
0.89%
0.65%
0.68%
0.46%
5
3.46%
2.22%
1.90%
1.59%
1.24%
1.54%
1.16%
0.84%
1.03%
1.27%
1.10%
1.12%
1.05%
1.83%
4.23%
6
2.55%
2.03%
1.81%
0.72%
1.34%
1.84%
2.12%
1.65%
1.26%
1.35%
1.34%
1.16%
2.01%
7
3.37%
2.05%
0.61%
0.96%
2.14%
1.50%
1.72%
1.53%
1.60%
1.65%
0.97%
1.24%
2.88%
8
0.00%
0.61%
2.19%
0.91%
0.83%
2.02%
1.63%
1.32%
1.72%
0.56%
1.25%
1.62%
9
1.06%
1.67%
2.14%
1.33%
0.90%
0.98%
1.84%
1.73%
1.75%
1.79%
1.96%
0.61%
1.52%
2.25%
1.21%
10
1.52%
1.10%
1.70%
1.64%
1.24%
0.88%
1.63%
1.42%
1.62%
1.62%
1.54%
0.59%
0.89%
1.70%
1.25%
11
0.00%
0.65%
1.29%
1.55%
1.39%
1.18%
1.92%
1.83%
1.74%
1.66%
0.83%
1.45%
1.03%
0.61%
0.96%
1.17%
0.35%
12
0.00%
0.00%
0.19%
0.96%
1.47%
1.29%
1.86%
1.79%
1.31%
0.76%
1.56%
1.06%
1.17%
0.96%
0.58%
1.36%
0.46%
13
0.00%
0.22%
0.15%
0.56%
0.73%
1.08%
0.74%
0.69%
0.79%
1.02%
1.03%
1.07%
0.99%
0.84%
1.03%
0.83%
2.02%
14
0.00%
1.48%
1.35%
1.28%
0.49%
0.25%
0.12%
0.27%
0.54%
0.67%
0.91%
0.96%
1.07%
1.77%
15
2.42%
1.67%
1.33%
1.27%
1.43%
0.56%
0.40%
0.35%
0.33%
0.52%
0.49%
0.68%
0.87%
1.48%
1.76%
1.95%
16
2.10%
1.63%
1.37%
1.79%
0.00%
0.61%
0.62%
0.32%
0.36%
0.53%
4.08%
2.38%
1.97%
I apologize for not highlighting the cells with some sort of colour but it makes the spoiler tags not work.
Takeaways:
Wreck chance on any given cell is low enough that I probably don’t have to take into account high rates of per-square wreck in models
Sharp changes seem to demonstrate that any smearing effect of having ship routes isn’t too bad.
Next order of business is to look for things which are common in the deadlier squares. Hopefully this will correspond to things with generally deadlier distributions too.
Further observations having graphed all encounter damage as a histogram:
Dragon: Somtimes does zero, often does a lot of damage, long tail
Harpies: Usually do zero, occasionally do one of a few values up to about 0.2
Iceberg: One of ten-ish values spaced sporadically between 0 and 0.3
Kraken: Exponential-ish distribution with tail going up to 0.9 ish
Merfolk: Usually does zero, flat-ish distribution which goes up to 0.65
Sharks: Often do zero, otherwise one of a few values up to like 0.15, not a big threat
Storm: Exponential-ish with faster dropoff than kraken
WMF: Might be half a gaussian? Also randomy hits high
I suspect due to the frequency of zeros, some captains/ships are immune to certain threats. Will investigate further
Another observation is that lots of the most dangerous squares have no encounters listed. This is spooky and I have a couple of hypotheses:
1: There’s an unobserved fatal threat thing going on. For example those are “dragon nests” and if you go there the dragons have some chance to just destroy you. Doesn’t seem to be a correlation to other things though so I’m not confident.
2: Some weird selection effects where the useless ships/captains always go via those squares (always include selection effects)
Excellent to see community D&D.Sci taking place! This looks far more complex than the original series.
I’ll be posting my findings in a thread under this comment
Edited as my maths was wrong and I forgot row zero!
First finding: I should stop using excel for these challenges.
Second finding: cell deadliness defined as (∑jPassedThrough(i,j)×Wrecked(j)Length(j))/(∑jPassedthrough(i,j) where i sums over cells, j sums over journeys, PassedThrough is whether a journey planned to go through a cell, Wrecked is whether a journey resulted in a wreck, and Length is the length of a journey
I apologize for not highlighting the cells with some sort of colour but it makes the spoiler tags not work.
Takeaways:
Wreck chance on any given cell is low enough that I probably don’t have to take into account high rates of per-square wreck in models
Sharp changes seem to demonstrate that any smearing effect of having ship routes isn’t too bad.
Next order of business is to look for things which are common in the deadlier squares. Hopefully this will correspond to things with generally deadlier distributions too.
Further observations having graphed all encounter damage as a histogram:
Dragon: Somtimes does zero, often does a lot of damage, long tail
Harpies: Usually do zero, occasionally do one of a few values up to about 0.2
Iceberg: One of ten-ish values spaced sporadically between 0 and 0.3
Kraken: Exponential-ish distribution with tail going up to 0.9 ish
Merfolk: Usually does zero, flat-ish distribution which goes up to 0.65
Sharks: Often do zero, otherwise one of a few values up to like 0.15, not a big threat
Storm: Exponential-ish with faster dropoff than kraken
WMF: Might be half a gaussian? Also randomy hits high
I suspect due to the frequency of zeros, some captains/ships are immune to certain threats. Will investigate further
Another observation is that lots of the most dangerous squares have no encounters listed. This is spooky and I have a couple of hypotheses:
1: There’s an unobserved fatal threat thing going on. For example those are “dragon nests” and if you go there the dragons have some chance to just destroy you. Doesn’t seem to be a correlation to other things though so I’m not confident.
2: Some weird selection effects where the useless ships/captains always go via those squares (always include selection effects)