Roughly 90 percent of all type of ship survive their voyage. Survival rate for different purposes varies between 84 and 92 percent doesn’t seem partcularly significant
Looking at the survival rates for different combinations of ships and purposes revelas some anomalously low values Carrack carrying redstones only 79%. Dhow and Mythrill 71% are the standouts. Might be a statistical fluctuation, and as we don’t know what we’re carrying it doesn’t help much
Ships that sail only one week after their last voyage have a noticeably lower survival rate (74%), otherwise it doesn’t appear to have much effect. So provisionally ignore all possible ships that sailed one week ago.
Voyages of length 10 or less have approximately the same survival rate of 90 percent, but this falls to 79% and 76% for voyages of length 13 and 14 respectively.
There are 19 encounters that did not take place on the planned route, and one of them occurred on land. This is a small fraction of the total, and they all occurred close to the route suggesting the planned route is reasonably reliable.
iceberg encounters are concentrated in the N part of the map, and are more prevelant during the N hemisphere winter. Kraken encounters seem to be restricted to a small number of tiles which tend to come in clusters, they are slightly more active during the summer. Reef encounters seem to be restricted to a small number of tiles which tend to come in clusters. Merfolk seem to be restricted to a few moderatly big clusters Wyrd Majick Fyre is centered on a cluster around J8, with a few random encounters elsewhere. Given the small number there is no reason to think these tiles are any more likely to suffer an encounter from it than any other.
Finding paths which yield the minimum expected damage (defined as all damage done in known encounters on route + 100/hexes on route for all planned routes that went through it but got destroyed yields the following) Best path to first destination(L13) is: (1) Q6 P7 P8 P9 P10 O11 N11 N12 M13 L13 Best path to second destination(E8) is (2)Q6 P6 O6 N6 M5 L5 K5 K6 J6 I6 H7 H8 G8 F8 E8
Restricting it just to voyages leaving in June leads to:: Best path to first destination(L13) is (3) Q6 P6 O6 N6 M7 M8 L8 K9 K10 K11 L12 L13 Best path to second destination(E8) is (4) Q6 P6 O6 N6 M5 L5 K5 K6 J6 I6 H5 G5 G6 F7 F8 E8 The slightly more northerly route in (4) is possibly because icebergs are less prevalent at that time of year, and they are concentrated in the northern part of the map, however there is no data at the end of the route, and Kraken have been seen in these hexes at other times, and they are more active than normal at this time of year, however the southern route also goes through Kraken infested waters.
Assigning double the weight to destroyed ships (and counting all voyages) yielded route Q6 P6 O6 N6 M7 M8 L9 L10 K11 L12 L13 and route (2) again. So this looks reasonably robust against changes to this weighting.
For the captains choosing those that have survived more voyages than any other seemed like a reasonable first guess, however looking at the data suggests that the same name can be given to > one captain e.g Seamus Reagans voyages occur in 2 widely separated groups. So instead we need to look at the ships, which can hopefully be uniquely identified by their ids. Ships are generally commanded by the same captain. The 2 ships that have survived the most voyages are the Orange Falcon followed by the Mopey Diamond.
So my provisional answer (Which may be changed if I get time to look into this further) is: Send The Mopey Diamond, a Carrack captained by Conall MacDougal by route Q6 P6 O6 N6 M5 L5 K5 K6 J6 I6 H7 H8 G9 G10 F10 E9 E8 Send The Orange Falcon, a Galleon captained by Brandon Buchanan by route Q6 P7 P8 P9 P10 O11 N11 N12 M13 L13
Thank you for posting this.
My initial observations are as follows:
I couldn’t find much just by looking at the data.
Roughly 90 percent of all type of ship survive their voyage.
Survival rate for different purposes varies between 84 and 92 percent doesn’t seem partcularly significant
Looking at the survival rates for different combinations of ships and purposes revelas some anomalously low values Carrack carrying redstones only 79%. Dhow and Mythrill 71% are the standouts. Might be a statistical fluctuation, and as we don’t know what we’re carrying it doesn’t help much
Ships that sail only one week after their last voyage have a noticeably lower survival rate (74%), otherwise it doesn’t appear to have much effect. So provisionally ignore all possible ships that sailed one week ago.
Voyages of length 10 or less have approximately the same survival rate of 90 percent, but this falls to 79% and 76% for voyages of length 13 and 14 respectively.
There are 19 encounters that did not take place on the planned route, and one of them occurred on land. This is a small fraction of the total, and they all occurred close to the route suggesting the planned route is reasonably reliable.
iceberg encounters are concentrated in the N part of the map, and are more prevelant during the N hemisphere winter.
Kraken encounters seem to be restricted to a small number of tiles which tend to come in clusters, they are slightly more active during the summer.
Reef encounters seem to be restricted to a small number of tiles which tend to come in clusters.
Merfolk seem to be restricted to a few moderatly big clusters
Wyrd Majick Fyre is centered on a cluster around J8, with a few random encounters elsewhere. Given the small number there is no reason to think these tiles are any more likely to suffer an encounter from it than any other.
Finding paths which yield the minimum expected damage (defined as all damage done in known encounters on route + 100/hexes on route for all planned routes that went through it but got destroyed yields the following)
Best path to first destination(L13) is:
(1) Q6 P7 P8 P9 P10 O11 N11 N12 M13 L13
Best path to second destination(E8) is
(2)Q6 P6 O6 N6 M5 L5 K5 K6 J6 I6 H7 H8 G8 F8 E8
Restricting it just to voyages leaving in June leads to::
Best path to first destination(L13) is
(3) Q6 P6 O6 N6 M7 M8 L8 K9 K10 K11 L12 L13
Best path to second destination(E8) is
(4) Q6 P6 O6 N6 M5 L5 K5 K6 J6 I6 H5 G5 G6 F7 F8 E8
The slightly more northerly route in (4) is possibly because icebergs are less prevalent at that time of year, and they are concentrated in the northern part of the map, however there is no data at the end of the route, and Kraken have been seen in these hexes at other times, and they are more active than normal at this time of year, however the southern route also goes through Kraken infested waters.
Assigning double the weight to destroyed ships (and counting all voyages) yielded route Q6 P6 O6 N6 M7 M8 L9 L10 K11 L12 L13 and route (2) again. So this looks reasonably robust against changes to this weighting.
For the captains choosing those that have survived more voyages than any other seemed like a reasonable first guess, however looking at the data suggests that the same name can be given to > one captain e.g Seamus Reagans voyages occur in 2 widely separated groups. So instead we need to look at the ships, which can hopefully be uniquely identified by their ids. Ships are generally commanded by the same captain. The 2 ships that have survived the most voyages are the Orange Falcon followed by the Mopey Diamond.
So my provisional answer (Which may be changed if I get time to look into this further) is:
Send The Mopey Diamond, a Carrack captained by Conall MacDougal by route Q6 P6 O6 N6 M5 L5 K5 K6 J6 I6 H7 H8 G9 G10 F10 E9 E8
Send The Orange Falcon, a Galleon captained by Brandon Buchanan by route Q6 P7 P8 P9 P10 O11 N11 N12 M13 L13