....you have to throw away the idea that your joint subjective probabilities are the product of your conditional subjective probabilities....If you win the lottery, the subjective probability of having still won the lottery, ten seconds later, is ~1.
If copying increases your measure, merging decreases it. When you notice yourself winning the lottery, you are almost certainly going to cease to exist after ten seconds.
Which is to pick Nick’s suggestion, and something like horn #2, except perhaps without the last part where you “anticipate that once you experience winning the lottery you will experience having still won it ten seconds later.”
Scanning through the comments for “quantum suicide,” it sounds like a few others agree with you.
If copying increases your measure, merging decreases it. When you notice yourself winning the lottery, you are almost certainly going to cease to exist after ten seconds.
Which is to pick Nick’s suggestion, and something like horn #2, except perhaps without the last part where you “anticipate that once you experience winning the lottery you will experience having still won it ten seconds later.”
Scanning through the comments for “quantum suicide,” it sounds like a few others agree with you.