I don’t have great indicators. We’re still pretty far from human-level performance in any major complex industrial task (from cooking to warehouse work, automation exists to exist humans, but humans are executing the difficult/interesting part). Even driving is forever just a few years away.
I also don’t know of anyone arguing for >40 year timelines—most of the skeptics aren’t arguing at all, they’re just getting on with their lives. If you take everyone who’s NOT obsessing over AI safety as arguing for very-long timelines, that’s a massive weight of opinion to overcome.
What in your opinion would a 5-10 year strong indicator look like?
I don’t have great indicators. We’re still pretty far from human-level performance in any major complex industrial task (from cooking to warehouse work, automation exists to exist humans, but humans are executing the difficult/interesting part). Even driving is forever just a few years away.
I also don’t know of anyone arguing for >40 year timelines—most of the skeptics aren’t arguing at all, they’re just getting on with their lives. If you take everyone who’s NOT obsessing over AI safety as arguing for very-long timelines, that’s a massive weight of opinion to overcome.
It might be 6 years.