Someone in that twitter thread points out that with subtracting false positives, it implies that 10% would be the better guess, as opposed to 13-14%. Does that make sense? Then 4 Covid-confirmed deaths per 620 people would be 0.66%.
And what about sampling bias? I read that the tests were voluntary. Unless someone was extremely meticulous about trying to somehow get a representative sample, I don’t think it’s reasonable to treat this as random. It’s really quite obvious that people who had flu-like symptoms for a couple of days will be more curious to go among people and have a needle stuck into them. .
I share your rough estimates of IFR in your other comment here although I was concerned about how high IFR might be with overwhelmed hospitals.
Sampling bias at its worst here would mean that IFR is 3 times more than those calculations (i.e. 1.5-2%). If this is the worst case in Lombardy where the hospitals are overwhelmed then it is something of a relief to me that higher rates are unlikely.
Someone in that twitter thread points out that with subtracting false positives, it implies that 10% would be the better guess, as opposed to 13-14%. Does that make sense? Then 4 Covid-confirmed deaths per 620 people would be 0.66%.
And what about sampling bias? I read that the tests were voluntary. Unless someone was extremely meticulous about trying to somehow get a representative sample, I don’t think it’s reasonable to treat this as random. It’s really quite obvious that people who had flu-like symptoms for a couple of days will be more curious to go among people and have a needle stuck into them. .
I share your rough estimates of IFR in your other comment here although I was concerned about how high IFR might be with overwhelmed hospitals.
Sampling bias at its worst here would mean that IFR is 3 times more than those calculations (i.e. 1.5-2%). If this is the worst case in Lombardy where the hospitals are overwhelmed then it is something of a relief to me that higher rates are unlikely.
Both good points. Hopefully we get more tests of the sort reported soon.