I was suspicious of the IHME model several days ago when I first saw it, but couldn’t find a detailed description of their methodology. (It’s really well hidden, and doesn’t even appear in their FAQ section.) Finally found it yesterday, noticed the “similar to Wuhan” assumption, then saw the page criticizing it linked in the comments section for the paper.
I was suspicious of the IHME model several days ago when I first saw it, but couldn’t find a detailed description of their methodology. (It’s really well hidden, and doesn’t even appear in their FAQ section.) Finally found it yesterday, noticed the “similar to Wuhan” assumption, then saw the page criticizing it linked in the comments section for the paper.