A smart friend pointed me to this study that explains that mediocre antivirals only work if administered right after infection. By the onset of symptoms the effect is already much reduced. (The study isn’t clear as to what counts as “symptoms” except that they occurred 3 days before hospitalization, so maybe early warning signs like loss of smell don’t count). HCQ is, at best, a mediocre antiviral. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20047886v1
This model agrees with a new study from China (N=150) that showed zero effect when giving patients HCQ 16-17 days after the onset of the disease. Of note, the study compared Standard of Care to SOC+HCQ, and I have no idea what the Chinese SOC is beyond the minimal requirement of intravenous fluids, oxygen, and monitoring that’s mentioned in the paper. In particular, there’s no info on whether it includes antibiotics like azithromycin, and whether it includes zinc. It’s hypothesized that HCQ works partly by easing the entry of zinc into cells where it slows viral replication, and so they work well in conjunction. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060558v1
Bottom line: it may still be worth it to take HCQ+zinc if you cough and lose your sense of smell two days after going through an airport, but HCQ may not be of any help to heavily symptomatic people (and it still has nasty side effects).
Hydroxychloroquine update!
A smart friend pointed me to this study that explains that mediocre antivirals only work if administered right after infection. By the onset of symptoms the effect is already much reduced. (The study isn’t clear as to what counts as “symptoms” except that they occurred 3 days before hospitalization, so maybe early warning signs like loss of smell don’t count). HCQ is, at best, a mediocre antiviral.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20047886v1
This model agrees with a new study from China (N=150) that showed zero effect when giving patients HCQ 16-17 days after the onset of the disease. Of note, the study compared Standard of Care to SOC+HCQ, and I have no idea what the Chinese SOC is beyond the minimal requirement of intravenous fluids, oxygen, and monitoring that’s mentioned in the paper. In particular, there’s no info on whether it includes antibiotics like azithromycin, and whether it includes zinc. It’s hypothesized that HCQ works partly by easing the entry of zinc into cells where it slows viral replication, and so they work well in conjunction.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060558v1
Bottom line: it may still be worth it to take HCQ+zinc if you cough and lose your sense of smell two days after going through an airport, but HCQ may not be of any help to heavily symptomatic people (and it still has nasty side effects).
Real bottom line: now that hydroxychloroquine is a politicized issue, you can’t trust anything journalists have to say about it and have to read the studies yourself.