With others, he did independent research into the issue when public sentiment stated the virus was well under control. They circulated this research privately and publically (anonymously), and the story even involves a cryptographic hash to pre-register their research (reasoning).
The whole post is interesting, and contains this gem that reminded me of LW concepts like a Crisis of Faith or Yudkowsky’s Civilizational Inadequacy:
I know the exact moment that I got worried for Japan: [...]
I didn’t do anything major, for a while.
I assumed everyone in a position to act had reached this conclusion. Surely, talented epidemiologists understand exponential growth and already know the shape of things to come. Surely, there is a department of people working day and night on the national response effort. Surely, all professionals understand how to parse official communications. Surely, in a hundred thousand rooms, responsible professionals have told their leadership what would soon happen. Surely, in a hundred thousand rooms, people in positions of authority have pulled out a thick red binder, steeled their hearts, and gone to work.
And so I mostly focused on the situation abroad, worrying for family and friends. I tried to distract myself with work. Then, by complete happenstance, two very smart people in one day told me that they believed the public consensus.
Japan was weathering the coronavirus situation well. I was lucky to be in Tokyo.
Imagine how surprised you would be if someone turned into a cat in front of you. That was how surprised I was.
I immediately attempted to update them on my understanding and reasoning for it, assigning an 80% probability to Japan (and Tokyo specifically) following the experience of peer nations. I suggested they orient their organizations consistently with that.
And then I looked at the behavior of people in the world, really looked, and suddenly had the terrifying thought that maybe many did not know.
I think the post may be of sufficient interest to LWers that it could warrant a top-level post, but I don’t know how to make such a post a valuable one. Consider this an invitation to this effect.
There’s a fascinating post by Patrick McKenzie (software engineer at Stripe, American living in Japan) on the Covid-19 situation in Japan.
With others, he did independent research into the issue when public sentiment stated the virus was well under control. They circulated this research privately and publically (anonymously), and the story even involves a cryptographic hash to pre-register their research (reasoning).
The whole post is interesting, and contains this gem that reminded me of LW concepts like a Crisis of Faith or Yudkowsky’s Civilizational Inadequacy:
I think the post may be of sufficient interest to LWers that it could warrant a top-level post, but I don’t know how to make such a post a valuable one. Consider this an invitation to this effect.