To predict a political movement, you have to understand its social dynamics and not just trust what people say about their intentions, even if they’re totally sincere.
Short term trends can be misleading so don’t update too much on them, especially in a positive direction.
Lots of people who thought they were on the right side of history actually weren’t.
Becoming true believers in some ideology probably isn’t good for you or the society you’re hoping to help. It’s crucial to maintain empirical and moral uncertainties.
Lessons I draw from this history:
To predict a political movement, you have to understand its social dynamics and not just trust what people say about their intentions, even if they’re totally sincere.
Short term trends can be misleading so don’t update too much on them, especially in a positive direction.
Lots of people who thought they were on the right side of history actually weren’t.
Becoming true believers in some ideology probably isn’t good for you or the society you’re hoping to help. It’s crucial to maintain empirical and moral uncertainties.
Risk tails are fatter than people think.
I draw a few more lessons from this (and from conversations with other survivors and escapees from horrific regimes):
6. Change is both gradual and terrifyingly fast—there is often months or years of buildup and warning, before weeks of crisis.
7. Terrifyingly fast is not instantaneous. It costs a lot, but one can get out if one actually believes the evidence in time.