The problem with trade agreements as a tool for maintaining peace is that they only provide an intellectual and economic reason for maintaining good relations between countries, not an emotional once. People’s opinions on war rarely stem from economic self interest. Policymakers know about the benefits and (sometimes) take them into account, but important trade doesn’t make regular Americans grateful to the Chinese for providing them with so many cheap goods—much the opposite, in fact. The number of people who end up interacting with Chinese people or intuitively understanding the benefits firsthand as a result of expanded business opportunities is very small.
On the other hand, video games, social media, and the internet have probably done more to make Americans feel aligned with the other NATO countries than any trade agreement ever. The YouTubers and Twitch streamers I have pseudosocial relationships with are something like 35% Europeans. I thought Canadians spoke Canadian and Canada was basically some big hippie commune right up until my minecraft server got populated with them. In some weird alternate universe where people are suggesting we invade Canada, my first instinctual thought wouldn’t be the economic impact on free trade, it would be whether my old steam friend Forbsey was OK.
I mean, just imagine if Pewdiepie were Ukrainian. Or worse, some hospital he was in got bombed and he lost an arm or a leg. You wouldn’t have to wait for America to initiate a draft, a hundred thousand volunteers would be carving a path from Odessa to Moscow right now.
If I were God-Emperor and I wanted to calm U.S.-China relations, my first actions would be to make it really easy for Chinese people to get visas, or even subsidize their travel. Or subsidize Mandarin learning. Or subsidize Google translate & related applications. Or really mulligan hard for our social media companies to get access to the chinese market.
It would not be to expand free trade. Political hacks find it exceptionally easy to turn simple trade into some economic boogeyman story. Actually meeting and interacting with the people from that country, having shared media, etc., makes it harder to inflame tensions.
The problem with trade agreements as a tool for maintaining peace is that they only provide an intellectual and economic reason for maintaining good relations between countries, not an emotional once. People’s opinions on war rarely stem from economic self interest. Policymakers know about the benefits and (sometimes) take them into account, but important trade doesn’t make regular Americans grateful to the Chinese for providing them with so many cheap goods—much the opposite, in fact. The number of people who end up interacting with Chinese people or intuitively understanding the benefits firsthand as a result of expanded business opportunities is very small.
On the other hand, video games, social media, and the internet have probably done more to make Americans feel aligned with the other NATO countries than any trade agreement ever. The YouTubers and Twitch streamers I have pseudosocial relationships with are something like 35% Europeans. I thought Canadians spoke Canadian and Canada was basically some big hippie commune right up until my minecraft server got populated with them. In some weird alternate universe where people are suggesting we invade Canada, my first instinctual thought wouldn’t be the economic impact on free trade, it would be whether my old steam friend Forbsey was OK.
I mean, just imagine if Pewdiepie were Ukrainian. Or worse, some hospital he was in got bombed and he lost an arm or a leg. You wouldn’t have to wait for America to initiate a draft, a hundred thousand volunteers would be carving a path from Odessa to Moscow right now.
If I were God-Emperor and I wanted to calm U.S.-China relations, my first actions would be to make it really easy for Chinese people to get visas, or even subsidize their travel. Or subsidize Mandarin learning. Or subsidize Google translate & related applications. Or really mulligan hard for our social media companies to get access to the chinese market.
It would not be to expand free trade. Political hacks find it exceptionally easy to turn simple trade into some economic boogeyman story. Actually meeting and interacting with the people from that country, having shared media, etc., makes it harder to inflame tensions.
This doesn’t seem like an either-or question. Freer trade and more individual interactions seem complementary to me.
I should note that I’m also pro free trade, because I like money and helping people. I’m just not pro free trade because I think it promotes peace.