I don’t have a crisp question yet, but one general area I’d be interested in understanding better is the interplay between inside views and outside views.
In some cases, having some outside view probability in mind can guide your search (e.g. “No, that can’t be right because then such and such, and I have a prior that such and such is unlikely.”), while in other cases, thinking too much about outside views seems like it can distract you from exploring underlying models (e.g. when people talk about AI timelines in a way that just seems to be about parroting and aggregating other people’s timelines).
A related idea is the distinction between impressions and beliefs. In this view impressions are roughly inside views (what makes sense to you given the models and intuitions you have), while beliefs are what you’d bet on (taking into account the opinions of others).
I have some intuitions and heuristics about when it’s helpful to focus on impressions vs beliefs. But I’d like to have better explicit models here, and I suspect there might be some interesting open questions in this area.
Tentatively share this link. Integral gives a whole deeper meaning to interiors, not just “my side of the argument” but the full meditation, mysticism, emotional depths of the subjective interior experience as it relates to the inside view. It’s a larger framework but it’s a good start to recognise the problem of interior/exterior split.
I don’t have a crisp question yet, but one general area I’d be interested in understanding better is the interplay between inside views and outside views.
In some cases, having some outside view probability in mind can guide your search (e.g. “No, that can’t be right because then such and such, and I have a prior that such and such is unlikely.”), while in other cases, thinking too much about outside views seems like it can distract you from exploring underlying models (e.g. when people talk about AI timelines in a way that just seems to be about parroting and aggregating other people’s timelines).
A related idea is the distinction between impressions and beliefs. In this view impressions are roughly inside views (what makes sense to you given the models and intuitions you have), while beliefs are what you’d bet on (taking into account the opinions of others).
I have some intuitions and heuristics about when it’s helpful to focus on impressions vs beliefs. But I’d like to have better explicit models here, and I suspect there might be some interesting open questions in this area.
Integral theory quadrants give a perspective framework for communicating this problem.
Interesting! Would you be willing to give a brief summary?
https://integrallife.com/four-quadrants/
Tentatively share this link. Integral gives a whole deeper meaning to interiors, not just “my side of the argument” but the full meditation, mysticism, emotional depths of the subjective interior experience as it relates to the inside view. It’s a larger framework but it’s a good start to recognise the problem of interior/exterior split.