Roodman’s hyperexponential model of GDP growth is both a better fit to a larger dataset and backed by plausible economics. The case for hyperexponential in Moore’s law is weaker on the data and constrained by rapidly approaching physical limits of miniaturization . (Although a GDP singularity may imply/require a similar trend in Moore’s law eventually, there’s also room to grow for a bit just by scaling out)
Does Roodman’s model concern price-performance or raw performance improvement? I can’t find the reference and figured you might know. In either case, price-performance only depends on Moore’s law-like considerations in the numerator, while the denominator (price) is a a function of economics, which is going to change very rapidly as returns to capital spent on chips used for AI begins to grow.
Roodman’s hyperexponential model of GDP growth is both a better fit to a larger dataset and backed by plausible economics. The case for hyperexponential in Moore’s law is weaker on the data and constrained by rapidly approaching physical limits of miniaturization . (Although a GDP singularity may imply/require a similar trend in Moore’s law eventually, there’s also room to grow for a bit just by scaling out)
Does Roodman’s model concern price-performance or raw performance improvement? I can’t find the reference and figured you might know. In either case, price-performance only depends on Moore’s law-like considerations in the numerator, while the denominator (price) is a a function of economics, which is going to change very rapidly as returns to capital spent on chips used for AI begins to grow.
It’s a GDP model, so its more general than any specific tech, as GDP growth subsumes all tech progress.
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