I can’t rehash my entire views on coordination and policy here I’m afraid, but in general, I believe we are currently on a double exponential timeline (though I wouldn’t model it quite like you, but the conclusions are similar enough) and I think some simple to understand and straightforwardly implementable policy (in particular, compute caps) at least will move us to a single exponential timeline.
I’m not sure we can get policy that can stop the single exponential (which is software improvements), but there are some ways, and at least we will then have additional time to work on compounding solutions.
That sounds like a good plan, but I think a lot of the horses have already left the barn. For example, Coreweave is investing $1.6 billion dollars to create an AI datacenter in Plano, TX that is purported to to be 10 exaflops and that system goes live in 3 months. Google is spending a similar amount in Columbus, Ohio. Amazon, Facebook, and other tech companies are also pouring billions upon billions into purpose-built AI datacenters.
NVIDIA projects $1 trillion will be spent over the next 4 years on AI datacenter build out. That would be an unprecedented number not seen since the advent of the internet.
All of these companies have lobbyists that will make a short-term legislative fix difficult. And for this reason I think we should be considering a Plan B since there is a very good chance that we won’t have enough time for a quick legislative fix or the time needed to unravel alignment if we’re on a double exponential curve.
Again, if it’s a single exponential then there is plenty of time to chat with legislators and research alignment.
In light of this I think we need to have a comprehensive “shutdown plan” for these mammoth AI datacenters. The leaders of Inflection, Open-AI, and other tech companies all agree there is a risk and I think it would be wise to coordinate with them on a plan to turn everything off manually in the event of an emergency.
I can’t rehash my entire views on coordination and policy here I’m afraid, but in general, I believe we are currently on a double exponential timeline (though I wouldn’t model it quite like you, but the conclusions are similar enough) and I think some simple to understand and straightforwardly implementable policy (in particular, compute caps) at least will move us to a single exponential timeline.
I’m not sure we can get policy that can stop the single exponential (which is software improvements), but there are some ways, and at least we will then have additional time to work on compounding solutions.
Double exponentials can be hard to visualize. I’m no artist, but I created this visual to help us better appreciate what is about to happen. =-)
That sounds like a good plan, but I think a lot of the horses have already left the barn. For example, Coreweave is investing $1.6 billion dollars to create an AI datacenter in Plano, TX that is purported to to be 10 exaflops and that system goes live in 3 months. Google is spending a similar amount in Columbus, Ohio. Amazon, Facebook, and other tech companies are also pouring billions upon billions into purpose-built AI datacenters.
NVIDIA projects $1 trillion will be spent over the next 4 years on AI datacenter build out. That would be an unprecedented number not seen since the advent of the internet.
All of these companies have lobbyists that will make a short-term legislative fix difficult. And for this reason I think we should be considering a Plan B since there is a very good chance that we won’t have enough time for a quick legislative fix or the time needed to unravel alignment if we’re on a double exponential curve.
Again, if it’s a single exponential then there is plenty of time to chat with legislators and research alignment.
In light of this I think we need to have a comprehensive “shutdown plan” for these mammoth AI datacenters. The leaders of Inflection, Open-AI, and other tech companies all agree there is a risk and I think it would be wise to coordinate with them on a plan to turn everything off manually in the event of an emergency.
Source: $1.6 Billion Data Center Planned For Plano, Texas (localprofile.com)
Source: Nvidia Shocker: $1 Trillion to Be Spent on AI Data Centers in 4 Years (businessinsider.com)
Source: Google to invest another $1.7 billion into Ohio data centers (wlwt.com)
Source: Amazon Web Services to invest $7.8 billion in new Central Ohio data centers—Axios Columbus