Thanks for the update! I think this is probably something important to take into consideration when evaluating ASI arguments.
That said, I think we’re starting to stray from the original topic of the Dark Arts, as we’re focusing more on ASI specifically rather than the Dark Arts element of it. In the interest of maintaining discussion focus on this post, would you agree to continuing AGI discussion in private messages?
And I was trying to focus on the dark arts part of the arguments. Note I don’t make any arguments about ASI in the above, just state that fairly weak evidence should be needed to justify not doing anything drastic about it at this time, because the drastic actions have high measurable costs. It’s not provable at present to state that “ASI could find a way to take over the planet with limited resources, because we don’t have an ASI or know the intelligence ROI on a given amount of flops”, but it is provable to state that “an AI pause of 6 months would cost tens of billions, possibly hundreds of billions of dollars and would reduce the relative power of the pausing countries internationally”. It’s also provable to state the damage of a nuclear exchange.
Look how it’s voted down to −10 on agreement : others feel very strongly about this issue.
Thanks for the update! I think this is probably something important to take into consideration when evaluating ASI arguments.
That said, I think we’re starting to stray from the original topic of the Dark Arts, as we’re focusing more on ASI specifically rather than the Dark Arts element of it. In the interest of maintaining discussion focus on this post, would you agree to continuing AGI discussion in private messages?
Sure. Feel free to PM.
And I was trying to focus on the dark arts part of the arguments. Note I don’t make any arguments about ASI in the above, just state that fairly weak evidence should be needed to justify not doing anything drastic about it at this time, because the drastic actions have high measurable costs. It’s not provable at present to state that “ASI could find a way to take over the planet with limited resources, because we don’t have an ASI or know the intelligence ROI on a given amount of flops”, but it is provable to state that “an AI pause of 6 months would cost tens of billions, possibly hundreds of billions of dollars and would reduce the relative power of the pausing countries internationally”. It’s also provable to state the damage of a nuclear exchange.
Look how it’s voted down to −10 on agreement : others feel very strongly about this issue.