Yeah, I’m not actually worried about the “melt all GPUs” example of a pivotal act. If we actually live in a hard takeoff world, I think we’re probably just hosed. The specific plans I’m worried about are ones that ever-so-marginally increase our chances of survival in hard-takeoff singleton worlds, at massive costs in multipolar worlds.
A full nuclear exchange would probably kill less than a billion people. If someone convinces themself that a full nuclear exchange would prevent the development of superhuman AI, I would still strongly prefer that person not try their hardest to trigger a nuclear exchange. More generally, I think having a policy of “anyone who thinks the world will end unless they take some specific action should go ahead and take that action, as long as less than a billion people die” is a terrible policy.
If someone convinces themself that a full nuclear exchange would prevent the development of superhuman AI
I think the problem here is “convinces themself”. If you are capable to trigger nuclear war, you are probably capable to do something else which is not that, if you put your mind in that.
Does the” something else which is not that but is in the same difficulty class” also accomplish the goal of “ensure that nobody has access to what you think is enough compute to build an ASI?” If not, I think that implies that the “anything that probably kills less than a billion people is fair game” policy is a bad one.
Yeah, I’m not actually worried about the “melt all GPUs” example of a pivotal act. If we actually live in a hard takeoff world, I think we’re probably just hosed. The specific plans I’m worried about are ones that ever-so-marginally increase our chances of survival in hard-takeoff singleton worlds, at massive costs in multipolar worlds.
A full nuclear exchange would probably kill less than a billion people. If someone convinces themself that a full nuclear exchange would prevent the development of superhuman AI, I would still strongly prefer that person not try their hardest to trigger a nuclear exchange. More generally, I think having a policy of “anyone who thinks the world will end unless they take some specific action should go ahead and take that action, as long as less than a billion people die” is a terrible policy.
I think the problem here is “convinces themself”. If you are capable to trigger nuclear war, you are probably capable to do something else which is not that, if you put your mind in that.
Does the” something else which is not that but is in the same difficulty class” also accomplish the goal of “ensure that nobody has access to what you think is enough compute to build an ASI?” If not, I think that implies that the “anything that probably kills less than a billion people is fair game” policy is a bad one.