Besides, searching for talent has costs. You’re much better off searching for talent at top tier schools than at no-name colleges hoping for a hidden gem.
That’s the signalling issue—I’m trying to create a better signal so you don’t have to make that tradeoff
What “types of questions” do you have in mind? And wouldn’t liquidity issues be fixed just by popularity?
Question Example: “How many units will this product sell in Q1 2016?” (Where this product is something boring, like a brand of toilet paper)
This is a question that I don’t ever see being popular with the general public. If you only have a few experts in a prediction market, you don’t have enough liquidity to update your predictions. With prediction polls, that isn’t a problem.
Why do you call that “signaling”? A top-tier school has a real, actual, territory-level advantage over a backwater college. The undergrads there are different.
If you only have a few experts in a prediction market, you don’t have enough liquidity to update your predictions. With prediction polls, that isn’t a problem.
I don’t know about that not being a problem. Lack of information is lack of information. Pooling forecasts is not magical.
Why do you call that “signaling”? A top-tier school has a real, actual, territory-level advantage over a backwater college. The undergrads there are different.
Because you’re going by the signal (the college name), not the actual thing you’re measuring for (forecasting ability).
I don’t know about that not being a problem. Lack of information is lack of information. Pooling forecasts is not magical.
I meant a problem for frequent updates. Obviously, less participants will lead to less accurate forecasts—but by brier weighting and extremizing you can still get fairly decent results.
That’s the signalling issue—I’m trying to create a better signal so you don’t have to make that tradeoff
Question Example: “How many units will this product sell in Q1 2016?” (Where this product is something boring, like a brand of toilet paper)
This is a question that I don’t ever see being popular with the general public. If you only have a few experts in a prediction market, you don’t have enough liquidity to update your predictions. With prediction polls, that isn’t a problem.
Why do you call that “signaling”? A top-tier school has a real, actual, territory-level advantage over a backwater college. The undergrads there are different.
I don’t know about that not being a problem. Lack of information is lack of information. Pooling forecasts is not magical.
Because you’re going by the signal (the college name), not the actual thing you’re measuring for (forecasting ability).
I meant a problem for frequent updates. Obviously, less participants will lead to less accurate forecasts—but by brier weighting and extremizing you can still get fairly decent results.