I have no reason to question your evidence but I don’t agree with your arguments. It is not clear that a million LLM’s coordinate better an a million humans. There are probably substantial gains from diversity among humans, so the identical weights you mentioned could cut in either direction. An additional million human level intelligences would have a large economic impact, but not necessarily a transformative one. Also, your argument for speed superintelligence is probably flawed; since you’re discussing what happens immediately after the first human level AGI is created, gains from any speedup in thinking should already be factored in and will not lead to superintelligence in the short term.
I have no reason to question your evidence but I don’t agree with your arguments. It is not clear that a million LLM’s coordinate better an a million humans. There are probably substantial gains from diversity among humans, so the identical weights you mentioned could cut in either direction. An additional million human level intelligences would have a large economic impact, but not necessarily a transformative one. Also, your argument for speed superintelligence is probably flawed; since you’re discussing what happens immediately after the first human level AGI is created, gains from any speedup in thinking should already be factored in and will not lead to superintelligence in the short term.