Makes sense. From the post, I thought you’d consider 90% as too high an estimate.
My primary point was that an estimate of 10% and 90% (or maybe even >95%) aren’t much different from a Bayesian evidence perspective. My secondary point was that it’s really hard to meaningfully compare different peoples’ estimates because of wildly varying implicit background assumptions.
Makes sense. From the post, I thought you’d consider 90% as too high an estimate.
My primary point was that an estimate of 10% and 90% (or maybe even >95%) aren’t much different from a Bayesian evidence perspective. My secondary point was that it’s really hard to meaningfully compare different peoples’ estimates because of wildly varying implicit background assumptions.