I used that description very much intentionally. As in, use your best Bayesian estimate, formal or intuitive.
As to the object level, “pre-paradigmatic” is essential. The field is full of unknown unknowns. Or, as you say “conditional on no near-term giant surprises...”—and there have been “giant surprises” in both directions recently, and likely will be more soon. It seems folly to be very confident in any specific outcome at this point.
I used that description very much intentionally. As in, use your best Bayesian estimate, formal or intuitive.
As to the object level, “pre-paradigmatic” is essential. The field is full of unknown unknowns. Or, as you say “conditional on no near-term giant surprises...”—and there have been “giant surprises” in both directions recently, and likely will be more soon. It seems folly to be very confident in any specific outcome at this point.