I don’t think you can have particularly high confidence one way or the other without just thinking about AI in enough detail to have an understanding of the different ways that AI development could end up shaking out in. There isn’t a royal road.
Both the “doom is disjunctive” and “AI is just like other technologies” arguments really need a lot more elaboration to be convincing, but—personally I find the argument that AI is different from other technologies pretty obvious and I have a hard time imagining what the counterargument would be.
I don’t think you can have particularly high confidence one way or the other without just thinking about AI in enough detail to have an understanding of the different ways that AI development could end up shaking out in. There isn’t a royal road.
Both the “doom is disjunctive” and “AI is just like other technologies” arguments really need a lot more elaboration to be convincing, but—personally I find the argument that AI is different from other technologies pretty obvious and I have a hard time imagining what the counterargument would be.