It seems to me that you’re conflating “succeeding” and “returning 5000x my money”. I think it’s obviously true that most startups don’t have a 0.1% chance of returning 5000x your money.
Notice that the most important factor in that calculation is generally not “chance of success”, but rather “chance of 5000x return, given success”.
It seems to me that you’re conflating “succeeding” and “returning 5000x my money”. I think it’s obviously true that most startups don’t have a 0.1% chance of returning 5000x your money.
Notice that the most important factor in that calculation is generally not “chance of success”, but rather “chance of 5000x return, given success”.