I think crypto is an interesting example, since LWers are very overrepresented among the people who made money of Bitcoin. But this could very likely be more due to the fact that tech interested people in general invested in Bitcoin, regardless of reasoning, and it just happened to turn out well.
Predicting black swans and booms would technically mean that LW would outperform the market, although it might take a long time and many events to prove it.
While I believe the probability for LW to outperform the stock market long term is significantly less than 50%, I believe testing the hypothesis is worth testing, since the potential gain is significant (even if I personally might not benefit from it). Also, I find the topic interesting, and will enjoy it regardless of outcome.
I think crypto is an interesting example, since LWers are very overrepresented among the people who made money of Bitcoin. But this could very likely be more due to the fact that tech interested people in general invested in Bitcoin, regardless of reasoning, and it just happened to turn out well.
Predicting black swans and booms would technically mean that LW would outperform the market, although it might take a long time and many events to prove it.
While I believe the probability for LW to outperform the stock market long term is significantly less than 50%, I believe testing the hypothesis is worth testing, since the potential gain is significant (even if I personally might not benefit from it). Also, I find the topic interesting, and will enjoy it regardless of outcome.