Both are down ~33% since my comment 9 months ago, oops. (The Nasdaq is down ~22%.)
AI capabilities have increased more than I expected. AI hype has increased less than I expected. I’d guess both have increased more than the market expected. I’d weakly guess that AI hype is still just a minor factor in the valuations of Google and Nvidia.
Nvidia is up 250%, Google up like 11%. So portfolio average would be greatly better than the market. So this was a great prediction after all, just needed some time.
I happen to have been looking at some ETFs based on AI-related companies, and all of them showed the same pattern: a doubling of value from inception (2018 or 2019) to early 2022, then losing a lot of that over the next year, and from then to date recovering to about their former peak. Investing in any of them two years ago would have been literally a waste of time. I did not see this pattern in a few non-AI-related indexes. Are there any events between then and now to account for this, or it is just random fluctuation?
Google has accounted for several of the biggest AI breakthroughs in the past 10 years, perhaps most notably, the creation of the transformer architecture. Further they invest a lot in AI, which among other things becomes apparent by them creating TPUs (their own hardware for AI).
Thus I believe Google to be the most likely candidate for achieving future breakthroughs in AI. It is not yet clear to me however if they will manage to capitalize on it well, since in they usually share all their breakthroughs openly.
Further, Google has a PE of 23.14, well below S&P 500’s PE of 24.91. Meaning that of Google has the equal or more growth potential than the S&P 500 in general, it should outperform.
Securities: Alphabet (GOOG) and Nvidia (NVDA)
Reasoning: AI hype will increase (more than generally expected), and these companies will benefit
Both are down ~33% since my comment 9 months ago, oops. (The Nasdaq is down ~22%.)
AI capabilities have increased more than I expected. AI hype has increased less than I expected. I’d guess both have increased more than the market expected. I’d weakly guess that AI hype is still just a minor factor in the valuations of Google and Nvidia.
Nvidia is up 250%, Google up like 11%. So portfolio average would be greatly better than the market. So this was a great prediction after all, just needed some time.
I happen to have been looking at some ETFs based on AI-related companies, and all of them showed the same pattern: a doubling of value from inception (2018 or 2019) to early 2022, then losing a lot of that over the next year, and from then to date recovering to about their former peak. Investing in any of them two years ago would have been literally a waste of time. I did not see this pattern in a few non-AI-related indexes. Are there any events between then and now to account for this, or it is just random fluctuation?
I think it in large part was correlated with general risk apetite of the market, primarily a reaction to interest rates.
Google has accounted for several of the biggest AI breakthroughs in the past 10 years, perhaps most notably, the creation of the transformer architecture. Further they invest a lot in AI, which among other things becomes apparent by them creating TPUs (their own hardware for AI).
Thus I believe Google to be the most likely candidate for achieving future breakthroughs in AI. It is not yet clear to me however if they will manage to capitalize on it well, since in they usually share all their breakthroughs openly.
Further, Google has a PE of 23.14, well below S&P 500’s PE of 24.91. Meaning that of Google has the equal or more growth potential than the S&P 500 in general, it should outperform.